Exploring the mismatch between credit ratings and loss-given-default: A credit risk approach

It is commonly observed that high grade loans with better ratings are often associated with low recoveries if they default (i.e. with relatively high loss-given-default (LGD)). To address the mismatch problem, this paper proposes a credit risk approach by minimizing LGD for higher rated loans as a risk-rating matching standard in the sense that the decreasing LGD from creditors’ perspective is associated with higher credit rating for the borrower. This standard forces customers’ credit rating of each grade to be optimally determined in correspondence to its LGD, which means the LGD of high grade loans tends to be low. The approach is then tested using three credit datasets from China, i.e. credit data from 2044 farmers, 2157 small private businesses and 3111 SMEs. The empirical results show that the proposed approach indeed guides the way to solve the mismatch phenomenon between credit ratings and LGDs in the existing credit rating literature. By optimally determining credit ratings, the findings derived from this paper help provide a valuable reference for bankers, and bond investors to manage their credit risk.     

林业收储在林权抵押贷款信用风险控制中作用研究

研究采用担保理论,通过实地考察福建省林业收储运作情况获取资料,基于控制林权抵押贷款信用风险的视角研究林业收储的作用;指出林权是林权抵押贷款关键的信用风险因素,但是,存在安全性与流动性风险等问题;介绍了林业收储运作流程并讨论了林业收储控制林权抵押贷款信用风险的路径,认为林业收储降低了抵押林权的真实性与变现性风险;指出林业收储存在过于依赖财政拨款、规模较小与缺乏合理的保值增值机制等局限性,林业收储无法从根本上化解林权抵押贷款中尚存在的抵押林权的安全性、流动性等风险;提出引入社会资本,建立政府财政收购机制,优化林权抵押贷款生态环境等建议。     

Extendible stock loan

In this paper, the model of extendible stock loan with forbearance is proposed. The loan is extendible, so as to prevent immediate losses or to prevent subsequent price drop; while the forbearance is granted only when the pledged share’s value is above threshold, so as to mitigate the risk-taking behavior induced by the extension. The non-synchronization of the liquidation of insolvent stock loans also alleviates the downward leverage spiral in a market downturn. Numerical analysis shows that fair extendible stock loan rates increase with the forbearance level as well as extension period, and loan rates are quite sensitive to the change of asset volatility and debt ratio. For lenders waiving the interest rates during extension period, their burden grows with extension rapidly when they grant looser forbearance and when asset volatility or loan-to-value is higher. Some suggestions are made accordingly. First, lenders offering uniform extendible loan rate can let borrowers choose between looser forbearance with shorter extension, or tighter forbearance with longer extension. Second, if the loan rate is priced fairly, lower margin requirement can only be accomplished with tighter forbearance. More looser forbearance worth higher rates.     

高校贷款融资风险评估与预警模型研究

创新高校贷款风险评估与预警模型,共筑财务系统"防火墙"。通过深入剖析高校债务风险凸显成因、影响路径及其特殊性,探索建立一套系统性强、涵盖面广、操作性强的风险评估与预警模型。并实证研究分析福建省A高校实施新校区项目所面临贷款规模、风险评估等问题,切合实际提出对策建议,为政府、高校和银行共同防范债务风险提供理论与实证依据,形成防范债务风险合力,促进高校健康、稳定、可持续发展。     

Students' summer tourism: Determinants of length of stay (LOS)

Studies scrutinizing the economic aspects of student tourism at the micro-level are rare in the literature. Set against this background, the present study examines the variation in a sample of Norwegian students' length of stay at summer vacation destinations in 2014. Three estimation methods – an OLS regression model, a Weibull survival model and a zero-truncated negative binomial regression model – provide qualitatively similar results regarding how a number of determinants affect length of stay. In particular, the results show that daily trip costs, booking time, tourism and trip motives, trip month and gender explain much of the variation in length of stay. Of special interest is the comparison of two segments differing on when trip duration is determined: the “pre-fixed” returners (75% of the sample) and the “open” returners (25%). In this regard, the results suggest that the “open” returners stay longer on their trips than the “pre-fixed” ones. Finally, the study provides some implications for future length of stay research.     

Cross-sectional surveys: Inferring total eventual time in current state using only elapsed time-to-date

We focus on snapshot surveying of sub-populations whose members are in a temporary state and where one of the questions asked is the elapsed time already spent in that state. From these answers we develop probabilistic and statistical procedures to estimate the distribution of total time that will eventually be spent in that state by any random individual who enters the state. The method relies on a selection bias often found in temporal sampling, sometimes called “random incidence” or “longevity bias.” We develop results for several types of sampling, including random and fixed times of surveying, random and fixed times of entering the state, and sampling only those who have already spent some minimal specified time in the targeted state. An example with post-doc data is included to demonstrate the steps.     

Money Allocation to Out-of-Home Leisure Activities and the Organization of These Activities in Time and Space

Monetary budgets influence activity participation and related travel as they demarcate limits on how people organize their activities in time and space. In this paper, we are interested in money allocation to out-of-home leisure activities and how this is affected by duration, sociodemographics, and time-location variables. Analyses were carried out by applying a seemingly unrelated regression model to a leisure activity data set. The analyses revealed that expenditures for out-of-home leisure activities are influenced by the variables mentioned above. Moreover, the results indicate that there is a substitution between expenditure of each activity.     

制度环境、审计意见与银行贷款——来自中国上市家族企业的经验证据

以中国上市家族企业为研究样本,结合企业所处的制度环境(法制环境、金融市场化水平、政府干预程度)进行实证检验,结果显示:上市家族企业所处地区的法制环境较好,或金融市场化水平较高,标准无保留审计意见具有一定的信号显示效应,部分抵减了其披露制约效应;在政府干预的环境下,不同类型的审计意见对企业获得银行贷款没有影响,在这种条件下,审计意见不是商业银行授信时要考虑的一个重要因素;审计意见对企业获得银行贷款的影响表现在短期贷款上,对长期贷款没有影响,即商业银行在长期贷款授信时不关注借款企业的审计意见类型。     

浅析如何改进我国商业银行信用风险管理方法

本文以商业银行信用风险管理为切入点,对我国信用风险管理的现状和问题进行探讨。文章介绍了我国商业银行目前使用的两种信用风险管理方法——客户信用评级法和贷款风险分类法,分析其存在的问题,并对完善我国商业银行信用风险管理提出了对策建议。     

市场化进程、环境信息披露与绿色信贷

本文基于中国资本市场的经验数据,并考虑了产权性质和市场化程度差异的影响,研究了我国商业银行贷款决策与环境信息披露的关系。结果发现,环保企业能获取更优惠的银行信贷,即绿色信贷是客观存在的,但其效果仅表现在环境信息披露不过度及市场化进程高的地区的情形下。上述研究发现对于构建和完善我国商业银行的绿色信贷机制建设,实现其可持续发展具有重要意义。